Before the trip: reassure, wayfind, bank the value. The customer's four questions (did it work, which platform, which coach, was it worth it) go unanswered on every channel while the window sells taxis and swaps over them. One arc per trip answers all four in order and demotes every sell below the reassurance, with disruption yielding everything to the service layer. The stake is won-trip lifetime value: £115.62 against £22.92 when the trip goes wrong.
The highest-stakes window of the relationship is three sells and no wayfinding.
“Prove my upgrade is real and get me to my seat. The question changes as the trip approaches: what will First be like, did it work and where is my ticket, right platform and right coach, and was it worth it.”
Why it happens The upgrade does not feel real. A reference code with no visible seat reads as not a real reservation, and nothing answers the morning's questions: platform, coach, will it be honoured.
The behaviour we are driving Board the right coach on the right platform without contacting support, feel the value on board, and arrive trusting the product enough to come back.
Not sized in the Q3 model. Not sized in the Q3 model; the travel-day cross-sells (ride, catering) and the seat-number anxiety saves need an Analytics read before a figure goes on the roadmap
Ladders to Build the Habit Loop: ARPU £19 to £21. Metric moved Opted-in ARPU £. Roadmap type New revenue. Evidence C, belief. Also moves Contacts per departure (support), M1 repeat %.
DRAFT, first pass, 4 Sep 2026. Basis: Q3_Marketing_Model (24).xlsx, Initiative Sizing tab, 8 Jul 2026 basis; figures incremental of organic return, credited over average active months; rates are benchmarks until holdouts replace them. Incremental of organic return, credited over the average active months; every rate is a benchmark until a holdout replaces it.
| The moment | Phase 1, ships now | Phase 2, waits on engineering | Who builds it |
|---|---|---|---|
on the map: 1 · The expectation-set email The wait email | email A silence becomes an owned beat: one expectation-setting email for the long-lead tail, per-operator inclusions, tested against a holdout with a stated go and no-go. | Nothing waits | Braze · logic changeAnalyticsDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 2 · The day-before reassurance The day before | push, email Push joins as primary for armed users; the email leg becomes an A/B against the proven control with a rollback floor; reach extends beyond the current narrow eligibility. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 3 · The morning wayfinding The morning | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | push A wayfinding push that does not exist today becomes the centre of the morning, with one cap-exempt correction, gated on the data path that makes it real. | Backend engineering · new eventBraze · data feedDesign · copy only |
on the map: 3 · The morning wayfinding The live pin on the lock screen | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | in-app New capability, gated as Phase 2: nothing in the launch depends on it, and the push covers the job until it lands. | App engineering · new surfaceBraze · Braze buildDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 4 · The value moment On board | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | in-app A new consent-free modal at the one moment the product's value is physically felt, shipped without a fabricated figure. | App engineering · new surfaceAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 3 · The morning wayfinding The persistent trip state | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | in-app The confirmation view becomes the arc's home: one persistent, live, consent-free trip state every channel reads and writes. Engineering rows D2 | App engineering · new surfaceDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 2 · The day-before reassurance The day-before email family, kept as the control | email Nothing, and that is the point: the change is recorded so nobody 'tidies' it away mid-test. Engineering rows D1 | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze build |
on the map: 3 · The morning wayfinding Ride cross-sell to the station | push The test ends with a decision; one arm survives; the survivor takes its place in the order instead of owning the morning. Engineering rows D6 | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalyticsDesign · copy only |
on the map: 5 · The arrival touch Ride cross-sell from the station | push No retirement, no re-point: the send joins the order, gains disruption suppression, is personalised on the home station within Veezu's covered stations, and its figure is labelled for what it is. Engineering rows D6 | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildDesign · copy only |
on the map: 3 · The morning wayfinding The train-swap reminder | push A control is wired; the won-cohort keeps it only past a named kill threshold; contact pressure from re-entry is reviewed. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalyticsDesign · copy only |
| The legacy swap push | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | Investigation then retirement. A deletion on an existing send ships now. | Backend engineering · copy only, native sendBraze · Braze build |
on the map: 1 · The expectation-set email The catering email | email Governed and measured, or folded. Either way it stops being an unowned sell inside the arc. Engineering rows D5 | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalyticsDesign · copy and creative |
| The disrupted trip | Suppression is the treatment: the arc yields entirely, and the unauthored service comm is named as the gap it leaves. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
| The deleted T-2h recovery send | A drafted send stays deleted: the T-3h push and the trip state cover its job without a third push in ninety minutes. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
| No cold opt-in ask on travel morning | No capture ask ships anywhere in the arc: the win moment owns capture, framed around day-of guidance. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
| Broadcasts stand down inside the arc | The arc's boundary is enforced estate-wide: broadcasts exclude customers with a live episode flag. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
The words are on the journey map above. A D number opens that row of the Engineering brief; the engineering board uses the same numbers. Live sends not named here continue unchanged. Go-live gates on the whole journey: The morning re-ranks on the same release the wayfinding lands; The episode flag and broadcast stand-down are wired before the first send; The disruption flag is readable at fire time; Consent capture at the win is live; The timing test is decided before the survivor re-ranks.
| The question | Owner |
|---|---|
| The catering email's future once the inclusions block exists: stand as a governed send, or fold into the beats. The fold is the smaller estate. | Sheran |
| Does the Veezu agreement allow the ride push to personalise and, where relevant, narrow by the customer's home station, and what is the revenue impact? Today the push already fires only on arrival at one of 78 Veezu-covered stations (console-confirmed); the proposal adds the home station so the message speaks to arriving home or arriving away and never reaches anyone outside coverage. | Sheran |
| Ratify the post-win slot arbitration this pack builds on as a working assumption: this journey owns every marketing slot while the won trip is pre-travel; the win beat itself is exempt as the entry hand-off. | Sheran |
| The 22-month timing test: which arm wins on the read you hold, or should it close without a winner? One decision retires two arms. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| The non-inferiority floor for the day-before email A/B, sized on the proven family's baseline, and the reach sizing that states the family's true coverage. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| The interim platform and coach source before the live rail feed, its freshness, and whether a platform-change event can reach Braze. Decides Row 3's phase. | Blocks launch Engineering and Product |
| Do refund and cancel events reach Braze fast enough for instant arc suppression, and does anything consume them today? | Blocks launch Engineering and Product |
| The ride pick-up pair's full audience panel: is the measurement holdout excluded there as it is on the drop-off pair and the day-before family? | Lisa, and the Braze developer |
| # | The ask | Hand back | Start here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decide the 22-month timing test on the read you hold: which arm wins, or does it close without a winner? One decision retires two arms. | The decision. | The ride pick-up row on the matrix. |
| 2 | Size the non-inferiority floor for the day-before email A/B on the proven family’s baseline, and state the family’s true coverage. | The floor and the reach sizing. | The measurement position on the Campaign brief. |
| 3 | Define the deflection baseline: does the trip state, made prominent, already deflect most of the 1,753 anxiety tickets? The wayfinding push’s marginal case depends on it. | The baseline. | The wayfinding row. |
| 4 | Size the long-lead slice (won seven or more days out): go or no-go on the wait email’s test power. | Go or no-go. | The wait-email row. |
| 5 | Substantiate the saved amount (the walk-up anchor is unconfirmed) and build the persona register trait, nightly. | The figure and the trait. | The on-board modal row. |
Conversion is behaviour, never opens: the catering email’s open-based success is the standing instrument fault, and every canvas converts on purchase or behaviour from day one.